This document was published under a previous government.

Health Workforce Planning Branch

Ontario Population Needs-Based Physician Simulation Model

In Ontario, physician human resources planning has historically been supply or utilization-based. This approach, however, does not inform us as to whether the supply is appropriate relative to population health need. In partnership with the Ontario Medical Association, the ministry hired the Conference Board of Canada to develop a needs-based simulation model to project future supply of and need for physicians in Ontario. It compares the supply of physician services to the population's need for health services to quantify a gap in services and the physician requirement.

Need for physician services is based on how various socio-economic and lifestyle risk factors in the population (for example, smoking) will contribute to the incidence and prevalence of various conditions in the future (for example, lung cancer). Supply of physician services is based on the flow of physicians from the education system to practice and physician survey response data on how much time each practising physician specialty spends treating these conditions. A variety of data sources were used in conjunction with specially formed expert panels and a survey specifically designed for this project. When combined with other quantitative and qualitative evidence, this model can improve our understanding of how policy interventions affect physician supply and its appropriateness.

Base simulation results are available by specialty and Local Health Integration Network. For more information, please see the project :

To view Portable Document Format PDF files, you will need to have Adobe Acrobat® Reader installed on your computer. You can download this free software from the Adobe website.

For More Information

Call ServiceOntario, Infoline at :
1-866-532-3161 (Toll-free in Ontario only)
In Toronto, 416-314-5518
TTY 1-800-387-5559.
In Toronto, TTY 416-327-4282
Hours of operation : 8:30am - 5:00pm


Health Workforce Planning Branch
56 Wellesley Street West,
12th Floor
Toronto ON M5S 2S3

  • Connect With Us
Facebook Twitter YouTube RSS